December Stock Market Blues

Hopefully you haven't even noticed that the market's down another 70 or 80 points today.  You're off living your life, writing Christmas cards, going to holiday parties and trying to get signatures for the Streetcar ballot initiative.

But if you happened to watch the news, you might be a little nervous.  Markets have a tendency to do that to us, every mass over-reaction conveniently graphed and rebroadcast on media outlets all over the world.  It's hard not to get wrapped-up in each little paper cut.

Actually, the economic news has been fantastic this week.  Looks like we're just about ready to pass a federal budget that should take us through the better part of the next two years. Which means no more government shut-downs for a while.  And the economy has been growing faster than expected with tax revenues ahead of predictions.

But big name financial pundits have to come up with some kind of reason and their most recent theme is, "Will the Fed begin "tapering" sooner than expected?"  The federal government has been buying $85 billion in bonds each month in an effort to lower long-term interest rates, particularly on mortgages, in order to stimulate the economy.  As consumers regain confidence, the plan is to stop borrowing and let interest rates go back up again.  We all know this will happen.  We all want this to happen.  Because it's a good thing  when the economy gets stronger and the United States borrows less money.  Certainly not any reason to sell your stocks.

Ahhh, pundits, it's not all that complicated.  This mini-pullback is just the regular, old December Blues we get annually around this time, that dreaded sluggishness that grips a lot of us as we slide into our darkest days of the year.  Downward pressure occurs as portfolio managers do their end-of-quarter window dressing, which means cheap stocks get cheaper as none of the pros want to be caught holding any losers in their accounts in a year when the market is up 20-30%.  We'll plug along this way until after the New Year when Wall Street comes back from vacation.

So, chins up, Everybody.  Deck the halls and all that jazz.  Buy a few bargains if you're in the mood.  2014 will be here before we know it.

It's Official! Twitter and I Have Started Dating

I know, I know.  It was only a month ago, my second post, right after Twitter's initial offering, when I told everybody, "There's plenty of time.  Have patience."

The honest to goodness truth is I'm not a very patient person.  Once I see something I want, I want it "right now."  (The quotation marks indicate my husband mimicking me.  He is the patient one.  Too patient, I think.  He's already planning his next new car purchase in 2019, when he turns 60.)

And I want Twitter.  I know I want it.  I always have.  Even if I don't understand it completely or use it well.  It's so sexy.  Let's face it, there just isn't anything else like it out there.  And people who do use it effectively, like Dr. Ono, president of UC, swear by it.

Now, don't get the idea that I'm a flirt.  That would be a day trader and I'm certainly not one of those.  When I date a stock, it's serious business.  What I'm after is a long-term commitment.  Contrary to all those experts who tell you not to marry your stocks, that's exactly what I want to do.  I want to wake up in the morning and know the companies in my portfolio intimately:  their problems, their strengths and weaknesses, the brains behind their operations and how they think, what challenges they face.  It's too tiring to reinvent my financial wheel every single day.

You know, exactly like marriage.   The same reason why my patient husband has put up with impatient me for the last fourteen years and visa-verso.  We understand each other.  We know how to work with each other through all our ups and downs.  That's the exact same way it is with me and my stocks.

What made me hit the "submit" button on my order entry page this morning was an article I read in the most recent issue of Fortune Magazine.  "How Twitter is Driving Change in Saudi Arabia."  The only country to forbid women from driving, an October demonstration by women drivers was smaller than planned.  Only about 60 women took part.  But loud calls for change are flooding social media, especially Twitter.  And according to Fortune Magazine, that's something Saudi Arabia's leadership cannot ignore.  Clearly this is a company with the power to change the world and that's why I want to own it.  Twitter empowers us.

So I established a "starter" position.  Just a couple hundred shares.  But enough to keep my attention and follow their story more carefully.  If I like what I see, I'll use any dips to add to my holdings.  Someday I'd like to own a thousand shares.  Or two thousand.

Please note:  I start to plan my strategy for how I am going to handle a drop in price at the same time I enter my first purchase order.  Because it's a highly speculative position, I bought the shares in a taxable account, so if I have to sell at a loss I can use that to offset other taxable gains.  I NEVER expect a stock to go straight up from my purchase price as that is a rare and miraculous thing that only happens about once every three years.

So wish us well, my fellow investors.  Twitter and I have set off on one of those grand adventures where all things are possible.  From the bottom of my heart I hope we are together for the next ten or twenty or maybe even thirty years.  Dating or investing, you have to start somewhere.  The best things in life are always a leap of faith.